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Bush Leads Kerry by Two Points - Reuters Poll
Thu Oct 28, 2004 07:02 AM ET
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By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush leads Democratic rival John Kerry by two points heading into the final five days of a tight race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

Bush led Kerry 48-46 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, gaining one point on the Massachusetts senator in a day. Bush led Kerry 48-47 percent on Wednesday.

Bush's lead is within the poll's margin of error, leaving the White House rivals in a statistical dead heat entering the final dash to Tuesday's election.

"It's close, it's close, it's close," pollster John Zogby said. "The candidates are locked in a dead heat among Catholics, young voters, voters over 70, men and women, and independents."

Only 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided. At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Democrat Al Gore by one point in the daily tracking poll.

Bush's presidential performance was rated as excellent or good by 49 percent, while 50 percent said it was only fair or poor.

The poll of 1,206 likely voters was taken Monday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.

Kerry leads in five of the 10 battleground states surveyed in a series of Reuters/Zogby state tracking polls, with Iowa and Michigan tied.

Kerry took a slim lead in the showdown state of Ohio and held his lead in Pennsylvania, while Bush leads Kerry in Florida. The results in all three of the biggest toss-up states were within the poll's margin of error.

The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with slightly more than 1 percent.

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

� Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.

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